Tuesday, March 08, 2005

Heinberg: Onward to Iran: "Third reason for the US to invade Iran arises from long-term American geopolitical strategy: Iran is one of the few important oil exporters without a US military presence (others include Russia and Venezuela). Further, Iran is strategically located between Afghanistan and Iraq, bridging the Middle East and Central Asia, and its control is thus essential for US domination of those oil-rich regions."

Heinberg might also have mentioned that the coastline of Iran completely dominates the whole of the Persian gulf including the Straits of Hormuz. Strategically, it is highly desirable to secure this vulnerability.

"With the approach of Peak Oil, the world has entered the end-game phase of the industrial interval. If the US does not gain a stranglehold on world resource streams, then China - now the world's main consumer of steel, grain, meat, and coal - will do so. Already China is gaining long-term oil contracts in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, and Nigeria; the Chinese are even seeking a sizeable portion of Canadian oil production, and have actually attempted to buy an American oil company (Unocal). While on the surface the US and China are politely trading (Americans buy cheap Chinese goods, the Chinese invest their earnings in US Treasury Bills in order to enable Americans to afford even more Chinese imports), beneath the surface both are angling for a superior position as the final game begins. If the US merely stands by, its economy will be destroyed when China eventually sells off its dollar holdings, and America will land on the ash heap of failed empires. The latter's only hope of continued glory is to play its remaining strong card - its spectacularly lethal weapons of mass death - in an effort to maintain control of global resource flows."

Chomsky argues that the US will not attack Iran, more-or-less because it would be crazy to do so. Heinberg argues that it would be crazy, but the US must do so and do so soon, or else lose the strategic game to China. An attack could proceed like this: the US/Israel launches an airstrike against Iran; Iran retaliates by attacking US bases and ships with missiles; the US does whatever it takes, including invasion, to overthrow the Iranian regime and install a friendly client, just like in Iraq.

But it is so risky that even the neo-crazies must have butterflies in the stomach before they push the Bush-puppet out to make the announcement.

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