Monday, June 02, 2003

Economist survey warns of boom and bust conditions in global housing market
This 8 page Economist survey is a very good report including informative graphs covering many countries. However it does not elucidate the most basic concepts of real estate, namely the distinction between land values and improvements; and the fact that land value is spurious capital based merely on the privatization of ground rent and which would not exist (nor would speculation) in a reformed land tenure and public revenue system.

'“BUYING property is by far the safest investment you can make. House prices will never fall like share prices.” This is the advice offered by countless estate agents around the globe.'

In 200 years of enclosed monopoly capitalism probably the number one constant is the land boom, bust and depression or recession. But they never learn. The land value cycle, like the single tax remedy of George, is definitely one for Orwell's Memory Hole.

'Over the past few years, house prices have been booming almost everywhere except Germany and Japan. Since the mid-1990s, house prices in Australia, Britain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden have all risen by more than 50% in real terms. American house prices are up a more modest 30%, but that is still the biggest real gain over any such period in recorded history. Commercial-property prices in some big cities have also been looking rather frothy... How long can the party last? Estate agents, builders, lenders, many economists and even Alan Greenspan, chairman of America's Federal Reserve, have all insisted that there is no house-price bubble.'

According to the George/Hoyt/Harrison 18 year cycle in land values the next peak (at least in Australia) should be in the year 2007. This means we have a good few years of boom times left yet and the last couple of years are usually the most spectacular...

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